Burnley vs Liverpool: Can the Clarets spoil the Reds’ title hopes?

Burnley will host Liverpool at Turf Moor on Tuesday, December 26, in a Premier League clash that could have huge implications for the title race. Liverpool are currently second in the table, one point behind leaders Arsenal, who have a game in hand. Burnley are 19th, three points from safety, and desperate for a positive result to boost their survival chances.

Team news

Burnley manager Vincent Kompany could welcome back some key players from injury, as Johann Berg Gudmundsson, Jack Cork and Aaron Ramsey are all in contention to feature. However, Luca Koleosho remains sidelined with a long-term knee injury, while Charlie Taylor is doubtful with an ankle problem.

Liverpool boss Jurgen Klopp has confirmed that captain Jordan Henderson will return to the starting lineup after missing the 2-2 draw with Arsenal due to a minor back issue. Sadio Mane, who returned to training on Friday after winning the Africa Cup of Nations with Senegal, is also available for selection. However, Kostas Tsimikas is out for several weeks with a broken collarbone, while Luis Diaz, Diogo Jota and Andrew Robertson are still recovering from their respective injuries.

Lineups

Based on the latest news and reports, here are the possible lineups for both teams:

Burnley (4-4-2): Pope; Roberts, Tarkowski, Mee, Pieters; Lennon, Westwood, Brownhill, Cornet; Weghorst, Rodriguez.

Liverpool (4-3-3): Alisson; Alexander-Arnold, Matip, Van Dijk, Robertson; Henderson, Fabinho, Thiago; Salah, Firmino, Mane.

Head to head

Liverpool have a dominant record against Burnley in the Premier League, winning 11 of their 14 meetings, drawing two and losing only one. The Reds have also scored 33 goals and conceded just nine in those games, keeping nine clean sheets.

The last time these two sides met was in August, when Liverpool claimed a comfortable 2-0 victory at Anfield, thanks to goals from Diogo Jota and Sadio Mane. Burnley’s only Premier League win over Liverpool came in January 2021, when Ashley Barnes scored a late penalty to end the Reds’ 68-game unbeaten home run.

Win probability

According to Stats Insider, a data-driven platform that simulates the outcome of sporting events, Liverpool have a 69.9% chance of winning this game, while Burnley have a 12.9% chance and the draw has a 17.2% chance. The most likely scoreline is a 2-0 win for Liverpool, with a 13.8% probability.

Prediction

Liverpool will be eager to bounce back from their frustrating draw with Arsenal and keep the pressure on the Gunners at the top of the table. The Reds have been prolific in front of goal this season, scoring 37 times in 18 games, with Mohamed Salah leading the way with 16 goals and 10 assists.

Burnley, on the other hand, have struggled to find the net, scoring only 14 times in 18 games, the joint-lowest tally in the league. The Clarets have also been leaky at the back, conceding 32 goals, the third-highest in the league. They have lost eight of their nine home games so far, scoring only six goals and conceding 21.

Therefore, we expect Liverpool to claim a convincing win at Turf Moor and keep their title hopes alive. Our prediction is Burnley 0-3 Liverpool